Approach
ENSURE CONSISTENCY IN STRATEGY
Our methods are designed in a manner to ensure Higher Repeatability, Larger Dependability and Better Profitability. These are all result of a systematic approach- adopted in ocean of Trading Technical’s, Philosophy and Emotional Intelligence.
DESIGN ALGORITHM
Achieve RepeatabilityDEPLOY STRATEGY
Bring ConsistencyTAKE PROFITS
Increase ProfitabilityALGORITHM DESIGN AND VALIDATION
There are various strategies in Technical Analysis which works best under different
scenario. We start with using various parameters such as SMA, EMA, DEMA, HMA, MACD,
Stochastic, Volume, Fibonacci, Pivot, RSI etc. Selecting a limited set of indicators is
only 33% done- we need to suitably modify various settings of these parameters and the
timeframe which varies from 15 min, 2 Hours, 1 Day, and 1 Week. This process helps
arrive at a combination which works best both for my- Logical and Emotional capacity.
Once a suitable match is arrived at- the strategy is back-tested and learning’s are
incorporated into the algorithm to ensure- we are suitably timed for the entry in the
stock market. There are different algorithms suiting to the requirement under portfolio
management. Certain are long term and few are short term.
Algorithms approach is important as it helps ensure consistency in the strategy towards
stock market. It is designed with backtesting done on over 500+ instance- each instance
checked for Entry- Target- Stop Loss. Once an algorithm delivers over 70% probability,
it brings reasonable confidence in dependability for future given it works only when
there are right conditions. The number of stocks coming out of algorithm varies whether
it’s a Bull, Horizontal, or a Bear market.
STRATEGY DEPLOYMENT AND MONITORING
Once the algorithm is proven for efficiency- it is further enhanced with Chart Patterns, Gann Setup, Fibonacci Setup and Candlesticks. These acts as a second level filter and further improve the success probability of the trades. Now the trade is taken- each trade with a fixed set of capital- no preference is given to any particular setup and fixed approach is followed. When the entry signal is generated- a trade is taken with providing the Target and Stop loss at the same time itself. None of my trades are without stoploss and none goes without a target.
PROFIT TAKING AND REFINEMENT
Once a trade is taken- it is monitored on two fronts. First on the movement towards the
Target and Second on the aging of the investment from the date trade taken. Profit
taking happens via pyramiding method or Candlestick patterns near Support/Resistance or
crossover of certain moving averages. Further the aging of investment is checked and if
30+ days has already passed- it is exited at the next best availability of
opportunity.
With the same approach getting deployed over and over again- under various emotion
sentiments of NIFTY and stock specific sentiments- the strategy matures over time and
offers unique dependability of offering stable returns
Our next wave is towards Machine Learning for which I have already started
certifications from Stanford University. These will not only take the trades to the next
level on automation but also provide advantage of unsupervised learning and improve
accuracy.